Samsung 2Q25: it’s even worse than the official leak

Jul 09, 2025

∙ Paid

I wrote here on 1^st July that the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range.
Samsung official announcement is worse: revenue KRW 74tn, flat YoY and down a normal / seasonal -6% QoQ. Operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less flagship smartphone, less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex.
Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q operating profit at KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. If an HBM-driven recovery happens, it will happen in mid-2026, not in 2H25.

Samsung Electronics today announced its earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2025.

Explanations from Chosun, we should read this as explanations provided by Samsung to select analysts. Summary below, analysts views:

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