Samsung 2Q25 official leaks: a sharp decline in operating profits, but it’s the bottom. We’ve heard this before.
revisit early 2026
Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media.
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. Last Q OP was 6.7tr, a year ago 10.4tn.
Of course, there must be some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E, see below – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.
Samsung 2Q25 preview
from KED here
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range.
“earnings have bottomed out and are expected to rebound in the second half of this year”. Of course, sequentially there is positive 2H seasonality but quite likely, Consensus expectations are too high for 2H25. See table below, Consensus expects a sharp increase in margins.
Samsung is “likely to gain new growth momentum from the release of revamped smartphone models”. The flagship launch for Samsung that produce revenue growth and higher margins is always in 1Q, so don’t expect this in 2H25.
“Samsung's smartphone sales in the second quarter were weaker than expected as well, despite the May launch of the Galaxy S25 Edge, , its thinnest AI-powered phone.” A high-ASP variant that didn’t sell well, Samsung’s own AI suite of “Galaxy AI” apps aren’t convincing.
“now gearing up to revive its phone sales with the release of new foldable models – Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip 7 – at its Galaxy Unpacked event in New York on July 8”. Flip phones have been a flop.
Samsung will “start of mass production of the industry’s most advanced DRAM – (1c DRAM) – a project seen as critical to its turnaround efforts”.
Samsung has indeed started qualification production for 1c, reaching ~60% good yields in June. Still some months to go to reach ~80% and mass volume production. In any case 1c is prioritized for HBM4 in mid-26. Volume production is planned for 4Q25, that’s the original plan and unchanged as far as I know. Initial volumes will be smallish as the first 1c DRAM line at Pyeongtaek’s P4 is installing 30K wafers / month.
2Q25 by division, here is the detail from KED:
“The Device Solutions division, which oversees its semiconductor business, is likely to report less than 1 trillion won in operating profit, down from 1.1 trillion won in the first quarter”.
Samsung has recently started delivering 12-layer HBM3E memory to AMD and Broadcom. But it has yet to secure an order from Nvidia for the most advanced AI chip currently in mass production.
Samsung suffered a setback after Nvidia chose Micron as its second supplier of HBM3E, after SK Hynix.
It also lost Google, its long-time foundry customer, which switched to TSMC
Samsung's foundry is expected to secure Qualcomm as a new customer for 2nm. The foundry division racked up about 2 trillion won in losses in the first and second quarters.
“Samsung's smartphone sales in the second quarter were weaker than expected as well, despite the May launch of the Galaxy S25 Edge. It is now gearing up to revive its phone sales with the release of new foldable models – Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip 7.”
“Sluggish smartphone sales dragged down earnings at its display division, which is estimated to have dropped from first-quarter levels.”