TSMC, UMC monthly sales: a tale of 2 worlds

• TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance as Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth is 43% YoY, guidance is mid-20s (US$) and Consensus is at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming?

• UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance as Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. No recovery in legacy semiconductor demand yet.

• This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).

The demand dynamics of the past 18 months is unchanged:

• Overall semiconductor demand is lackluster, as informed by UMC very sluggish “recovery”

• The only growth driver is AI, which means Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, SK Hynix.

TSMC: YTD revenue growth 43%. Growth is accelerating - not slowing down.

UMC: YTD revenue growth 4%. This is not showing improvement.

• TSMC is on its way to beating its 2Q revenue guidance as Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide.

• UMC is on its way to missing its 2Q revenue guidance as Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide.