TSMC: results / guidance beat. 2025 Capex and AI revenue up strongly. Long-term revenue growth ~20%. Only positive messages.

The stock is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.

• 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.

• 2025 revenue up mid-20%.

• AI revenues will double or more than double depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues).

• 2025 Capex US$40bn from 2024 30bn on N2-A16 capacity.

• The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus. Consensus could or should move up after today’s guidance in my opinion, as revenue growth is better while margins disclaimers are expected.