N. Baratte - TechStock01

N. Baratte - TechStock01

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N. Baratte - TechStock01
N. Baratte - TechStock01
SMIC 1Q25: strong QoQ wafer growth but weak ASP. Probably the same in 2Q. Large Capex to continue in 2025, shipment up, D&A up, ASP down, margins muted.

SMIC 1Q25: strong QoQ wafer growth but weak ASP. Probably the same in 2Q. Large Capex to continue in 2025, shipment up, D&A up, ASP down, margins muted.

The stock is as expensive as always

Nicolas Baratte - TechStock01's avatar
Nicolas Baratte - TechStock01
May 09, 2025
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N. Baratte - TechStock01
N. Baratte - TechStock01
SMIC 1Q25: strong QoQ wafer growth but weak ASP. Probably the same in 2Q. Large Capex to continue in 2025, shipment up, D&A up, ASP down, margins muted.
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  • 1H25 strong revenue growth continues as capacity increase, “production shifting back domestically”, but weakening ASP and clearly demand pull-in in 1H due to US tariffs and China domestic consumer subsidies.

  • “2H not clear, especially after late 3Q” but not company specific. Management mentions the usual macro / US tariffs unknowns. 2025 Capex similar to 2024 (US$7.7bn or 80% of revenue), D&A increasing, ASP down, margins muted.

  • The stock is as expensive as always. 49x 2025 EPS, 41x 2026. Consensus is not expecting a negative tariffs shock or weaker China domestic demand.

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