PC 1Q25: 5% YoY growth but shipments inflated ahead of US import tariffs. Dreams of a Windows refresh and AI PC upgrade boosting demand continue

expect a slow year with risks of excess inventory

• PC units grew by a tepid 1% in 2024 and growth accelerated to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers in 1Q: Apple, Lenovo.

• The supply chain clearly identifies higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs (confirmed Apr 2^nd) but flat end-demand.

• ~70% of Computers are Made in China and the US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.

• There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.