ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: trying to clear doubts on EUV growth and China demand – short update

I'm not sure that we have more clarity after the conf call

• The stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“) and confusion on EUV growth should explain it.

• Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units. Still, there is no increase in EUV layers at 2nm (2H25), next increase is at 14A (2027-28). IMO, High NA insertion could be delayed to later versions of 14A (2029) or 10A (2030).

• China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China from mainstream logic and memory, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.

• Clarification on 2026 revenue? “we’re not going there”.