ASML 2Q25 beat but the steep slowdown in 2H25 is confirmed, it will most likely extend to 1H26. Weak patch ahead.
The stock lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters.
I reviewed the good and the bad of ASML here.
ASML has released 2Q25 financials but the conf call is at 3pm. 2Q25 beat by 10% at Operating and Net Income level vs Consensus. 2Q25 bookings are low at €5.5bn. 1-2Q bookings only reach 61% of revenue; the backlog is shrinking.
3Q25 revenue guidance is weak, -9% below Consensus. But ASML maintains its 2025 revenue guidance (+15% YoY or € 32.5bn, inline with Consensus). After a weaker 3Q, this implies a bigger 4Q. But the key problem is that 1H25 revenue growth was 34% YoY and 2H25 growth will collapse to 2% YoY. Expect growth to remain very low (could be negative) in 1H26.
As I wrote in the link above, growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impacts of China lower spending, Mature node lower spending, multiple delays or cuts (Intel, Samsung) are fading away. The stock lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 27.6x forward PEx, that’s acceptable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.
Is this a nasty disclaimer from management? “Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers' fundamentals remain strong. At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage”. Consensus expects 6% revenue growth.
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